A reporter's notebook

Golkar’s Catch-22

The Reporter — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 05:43:17 +0000

Golkar is now in a very difficult position as it has no trusted candidate to nominate as presidential candidate. Vice President Jusuf Kalla, currently Golkar’s chairman is running on the same ticket as vice president with incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who is chairman of the relatively-small Partai Demokrat.

Kalla’s expectation is a coalition between Golkar and Demokrat but that will run against the aspirations of Golkar which is now facing an internal split.

Last October, the Golkar faction at the House of Representatives (DPR) changed its political stance by withdrawing support for the SBY-Kalla government on grounds that government policies disadvantaged Golkar with many of its nominees losing gubernatorial and regency elections such as in North Maluku and Lampung. In many cases, protests and disputes often colored the election process.

Under existing tradition, the chairman of the party should be the frontrunner to be nominated as presidential candidate. Kalla’s only option is for a vice-presidency. That too will fall under severe criticism from Golkar politicians.

Inside Golkar, one of Indonesia’s largest party, political wrangling continues. Diehards are not on the same bandwagon when it comes to presidential elections. Although during its latest leadership conference Golkar seemed to have thrown its weight behind SBY and Kalla, the condition has changed much.

In any way or the other, Golkar is in the doldrums. Golkar’s senior politician Akbar Tandjung has other ideas. The House Speaker Agung Laksono expects the party would ask him to run for the top slot. The younger generation of Golkar politicians also want to nominate a candidate of the younger generation. They have seen enough of the old guards. Yuddhi Chrisnandi, a younger Golkar politician, has challenged Kalla.

Although it seemed unlikely, close sources said Abu Rizal Bakrie, now coordinating minister for people’s welfare and a staunch Golkar politician, is also jockeying fo the top Golkar post which will pave his way for the presidency.

Gorontalo Governor Fadel Muhammad, a leading Golkar politician, had called on Kalla to propose a Golkar national convention urging the party to nominate its candidate for president. Kalla rejected Fadel’s idea and relationship between the two became sour.

Ginanjar Kartasasmita, also an old guard, maintains vast network in the regions as he is now the chairman of the Regional People’s Consultative Assembly (DPD). He is powerful within the political elite but has no grassroot support. He too has other ideas.

But all that is now overshadowed by the emergence of Sultan Hamengku Buwono X who is running as independent presidential candidate. This has made Golkar’s position even more difficult afterall the sultan is still a member of Golkar.

The sultan, who gained vast popularity within a very short period of time, said he will remain in Golkar as he sees there was no urgent interest for him to leave Golkar. Besides, Golkar has yet to name a presidential candidate.

The sultan, which ranks third behind SBY and Megawati in popularity polls, has won increasing support within Golkar. Golkar’s workers wing, SOKSI, regard him as the most popular figure in Golkar and the most potential vote-getter.

But the political elite in Jakarta dismisses and underestimated the sultan’s capability in running for the presidency and to lead on grounds that he is inexperienced and has no political party support.

Political analyst Sukardi Rinakit, a staunch sultan supporter, said it would be easy for the sultan to win support from grassroot level with the majority of the Javanese voters backing him and the fact that the sultan’s acceptability and trust ratings are high.

Sukardi also said that Golkar or any other parties would be less fortunate if they do not opt to back the sultan with his rising popularity and acceptability.

A Golkar politician, Anton Lesiangi, said that Golkar is currently lacking a marketable figure and that the sultan would be the probable option for the top slot and if Golkar wants to win.

Latest surveys show that the sultan can win far more votes than Kalla as presidential hopeful.

On paper, only Golkar and the Megawati Soekarnoputri’s PDI-P qualify to nominate their presidential candidates. The two largest political organizations have the largest number of parliamentary seats.

If Kalla wants a coalition with SBY’s Partai Demokrat, he would probably face no-confidence motion from Golkar. If Golkar wants a coalition with PDI-P, it will be disillusioned into thinking Megawati Soekarnoputri would back the SBY–Kalla ticket.

In a rare interview published in the Van Gorge Report, Kalla has indicated that he would refrain from politics and return to his original habitat as businessman. Aburizal Bakrie, Indonesia’s richest man, has also indicated he would no longer accept a government job following the elections next year.

Golkar has dominated Indonesian politics for more than 30 years and is now trying to chart a new course to compete in a more democratic atmosphere. Although tainted in its history of backing the New Order government of former president Suharto, Golkar has strong network as far as the remote villages. It is now trying to distance itself from the past and become a new and modern party.

But given the current condition of Golkar with all that internal problems, it would make the party even more difficult to advance unless it unites and nominate its presidential candidate.

The collapse of Corporate Indonesia

The Reporter — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 05:11:44 +0000

The global financial crisis has hurt the big Indonesian companies so bad that they are forced to sell their assets to repay debts. One example is the Bakrie group of companies. The largest corporation in Indonesia borrowed heavily during the past two years to finance an expansion drive. As a result, Bakrie stocks are now worth only a fraction of what they used to be. On October 7, 2008, the Indonesian Stock Market suspended trading of six Bakrie companies, which together accounted for about a third of daily trading value in the market. Now Bakrie is very desperate (who wants to buy those cheap and silly papers anyway).The government and the political elite are by any means trying to bail out Bakrie, including urging state-owned companies to buy Bakrie stocks (for a very specific reason, they have to bail out Aburizal Bakrie). Other investors are cautious and uncertain. Only the foreign investers who might be interested. But at lowest price of course. In the banking sector meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Boediono said that the US financial meltdown will not have significant impact on Indonesian local banks (officialdom is always optimistic as ever). But the facts are different. An Indonesian depositor had difficulty withdrawing million of his own money from a local private bank. The bank simply did not have enough liquidity (most probably some of the money is deposited abroad or invested somewhere). Many others are likely to do so as they want blanket gurantees. A number of Indonesian banks, including Bank BNI, BRI, Bank Mandiri, Bank NISP and Bank Lippo have deposits in the Indonesian Central Bank-owned Bank Indover based in Amsterdam. The bank was hit hard by the credit crunch and had to be closed down. On October 6, 2008, the Indover Bank failed to meet a withdrawal request of 100 million euros. It is not clear whether or not the Indonesian bank deposits can be recovered. Based on existing regulations, the Central Bank can’t bail out Indover Bank by injecting funds. But now, the government is lobbying the lawmakers at DPR to change the legislation on grounds that if not, the shareholders will lose their money and on the part of Indonesia, it will lose its overall credibility. Indonesia’s largest bank, Bank Mandiri wanted an acquisition of Bank Indover but that effort also failed. The collapse of Lehman Brothers is to be blamed for the collapse of Bank Indover’s Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Who else are to blame? The rating agencies such Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, JP Morgan and so forth. They are the ones who practically fooled every investor on earth. A class action should be launched against them. Also to blame were irresponsible Indonesian policy makers and elite who adopted laissez faire capitalism and the free market as their true ideology without check and balances (their Indonesian values and nationalism must be questioned). What’s happening to the state-owned companies? Sooner or later fall in the hands of the foreigners (why sell the cash cows?) Privatization violates the ’45 Constitution. BUMNs are supposed to be one of the pillars of the Indonesian economy according the ’45 Constitution. What about the Indonesian property players? A shareholder of the prestigious Senayan City was reportedly offering his stake for sale (he borrowed money to build another high-rise project and can’t pay back). Other property projects are lacking buyers as well (don’t believe in the “sold” signs). What about the large export-driven companies? They are also on the verge of collapse due to drop in commodity prices such as CPO, coal and rubber. There is no more market in the US, Europe or even in China and India. As a result people, and especially the plantation workers will be out of work and can’t feed their families (1 million hectares of crude palm oil plantations are abandoned and harvests are rottening). Who says the global financial meltdown won’t affect the Indonesian economy? We are already feeling the pain. Capitalism has failed as proved by the crisis in the US and Europe. Neither can it work in Indonesia where the gap between the rich and the poor is too wide.

Black Wednesday

The Reporter — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:43:31 +0000

Today, October 8, 2008, the Indonesian stock market was suspended after the main index plunged more than 10 % in morning trade. What does it tell us all? We all will be affected by the global crisis (although officialdom won’t admit it). I personally think that the global financial crisis will sooner or later roll into the Indonesian economy. Those of you who are market players will really feel the pinch as stock prices go deep down the ravine. Price of preferred Bumi Resources shares dropped to only Rp 2,174 from the Rp 8,000 level. All Bakrie stocks dropped more than 40%. Officialdom meanwhile played down the seriousness of the possible impact of the global crisis on Indonesia’s economy (they have to be optimistic to promote a positive sentiment). Seen from the series of meetings by the president, ministers and businessmen, the mood was optimistic and Indonesia has the necessary steps to cope with the looming crisis. They also believed there won’t be a repercussion of the 1998 crisis (underneath all that, they are all jittery). Central Bank Governor Boediono increased the BI rate to prevent the rupiah currency from devaluating. There won’t be any credit funds around (how can infrastructure projects continue without credit funds?). Government bonds (SUN) are no longer attractive. Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu was too optimistic. She said exports will not be affected much unless the global crisis is prolonged. She should have said “immediately prevent is import from countries affected by the crisis” to be credible on her part. Price of commodites such as CPO, coal, rubber, oil, nickel and others are falling (besides the resources are all over-exploited and drained out). And the likelyhood is that many people will be out of their jobs. From the social perspective, the greatest threat is unemployment and increasing number of poor people. Look at America which has become the model economy of the world. Although the US Congress finally passed the bill for the $700 billion bailout funds from the government, Americans are not better off. The market sentiment may be slightly up but will surely go down again. As for the ordinary Americans, they are feeling the real pain now. Indonesia has long been dictated by the West in implementing its economic policies. Now we have to pay back soon what we owed to them to save their own neck (the government has to renegotiate debts with Western creditors). The West bailed Indonesia out of crisis in 1998 but now, in the case of crisis, what can they bail us out with? It’s about time that we rise on our own feet and stop aping Western economic policies and engage in our own concept of people’s based economy.

Propaganda journalism

The Reporter — Sun, 11 May 2008 15:48:34 +0000

When journalists converge on Bali for the Global Inter-Media Dialog, American journalism and the media came under fire for engagement in propaganda practices. The subject immediately stole my attention. After 9/11, the US media used new terminologies which often blurred the real picture of what is happening in other countries where the main religion is Islam. The frequent use of terms such as Islamophobia, fundamentalism, war on terror and Islamic terrorists, Islamic fascists etc. had great influence in shaping wrong perception about Muslims and Islam (who invented those terms?). It’s biased and on the part of the journalists, its really unprofessional. I want to call it propaganda reporting designed to cause misperception, hatred and discrimination against other countries, peoples and cultures. In the late 1970s, a professor at Duke University, North Carolina and a lectures at George Washington University told me that most journalists in the US were well-trained, highly educated and most came from respected middle class American families. In their profession, they possessed a high degree of respect for code of ethics, confidentiality, people’s rights and most of all, high-standard of accuracy. US-style journalism gained credibility and became a model for the world. But after US President George W. Bush came to power, the quality of journalism declined. The US media became the propaganda arm of the US Government (“either you’re with us or with the terrorists!”). It is biased, unbalanced and at times misleading when it comes to reporting reporting on other countries, cultures, values and religion. Regretfully, and at many times unaware, the journalists resort to propaganda journalism, lacking social responsibility, tolerance of other cultures and accuracy. An example of propaganda reporting is the kidnapping of Israeli soldier, Corporal Gilad Shalit, in a raid by Palestinians. There was no press reports except in the Turkish media which pointed to the truth that it was the Israelis first who kidnapped Palestinians. It was propaganda journalism designed to turn the facts around. The account was confirmed by Gore Vidal and twelve other journalists who put up a petition against propaganda reporting (who doesn’t believe him?). During the Iraq war, propaganda journalism was widely practiced such as in the case of portraying civilian casualties as terrorists. In Israel and in North Korea, propaganda reporting is common. In this part of the world, the most recent example of propaganda journalism is the case of Timor Leste President Ramos Horta’s allegations that Indonesians were involved in an assassination bid on his life (he still owes Indonesia an apology, publicly, at least in the media). The Australian journalists may have felt uncomfortable and unaware that they have been used for propaganda purposes by Australia and Horta himself. In newly-democratic Indonesia, where the mainstream media are mostly owned by businessmen, propaganda reporting is still practiced, however under a new public relations cloak to serve the interests of the businessmen, politicians and the government.

Failed policies, why not a public debate first?

The Reporter — Sat, 10 May 2008 02:39:57 +0000

Raising subsidized fuel prices and giving away cash disbursements to the poor people are not the only solution for this country. Such policies will only make more and more millions suffer and raise the number of poor who are already struggling for their daily lives due to rising fuel and food prices. Under a capitalist regime, the policy of increasing fuel prices may look and sound good. But in the case of Indonesia, more and more millions of people who are already struggling for their daily lives, will suffer even more (watch out for demos, increased crime rate and suicides). Current economic policies have not worked. For the common people, life is far more difficult. Farmers are not better off in terms of their welfare and fishermen can no longer afford to go to sea. Cash disbursements of a mere Rp 100,000 a month to the poor will only last for two days (Rp 14 trillion in 7 months, Rp 100,000 per family each month). And it can be misinterpreted as political bribes to win the hearts of the people. Yudhoyono’s call for saving energy may be a good call but not for the common people who have yet to enjoy electricity, affordable basic needs, education, health and a decent life (It’s a call for the elite people, officials, MPs and businessmen!). People don’t buy policies under the pretext of external factors such as rising global oil and food prices and most of all, bailing out the state budget. There are other alternatives which Indonesia can take in the course of saving the nation. One way is having the courage to resist foreign influence, get rid of the oil mafia practices and implement own genuine Indonesian economic policies. They can be among others, renegotiating oil production sharing contracts with foreign companies, covering the Rp 35 trillion budget deficit using the abundant funds intended for spending (government only spent 5% of that), rescheduling repayment of foreign debt (the bulk of the money is untouched for the creditors) and making the state oil enterprise, Pertamina, efficient. But Yudhoyono insisted no other economic solutions will work except for increasing fuel. Such dogmatic thinking is undemocratic in nature (intellectual arrogance?). He should have accommodated the theories and analysis of other economists outside the government. Or at least engage in a public and open debate first with economists who believe they their theories are applicable (why not a debate with Rizal Ramli?). This way, he will save his own credibility which is now seen and portrayed as more serving the interests of the foreigners, foreign bond holders and his own political ambition.

A question of sincerity

The Reporter — Thu, 01 May 2008 19:07:44 +0000

Subject: “Indonesia and Timor Leste: Redefining Relations for the Future”. Place: Flores Room, Hotel Borobudur. Time: Wednesday, April 30, 2008 14:00 – 16:00. Host: Presidential Spokesperson, Indonesian Council on World Affairs, Embassy of the Democratic Republic of Timor Leste. Speaker: Timor Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. Mood: Speech and Impressed audience despite the dull Q & A session dominated by officials and academics. Only one important question, among the most ordinary, was asked by a researcher questioning the prime minister’s real commitment towards fostering relations with Indonesia. It went unanswered. Instead, smooth talk about the speaker’s relations with the President of the Republic of Indonesia, his 62 years of age and equating himself and his political experience with other leaders of Asia. The rest was body language, no real content and short of what a real lecture was supposed to be. We are not against the prime minister to improve relations with Indonesia. After all he has said that Bahasa Indonesia will be taught in Timor Leste schools, Timor Leste will have military cooperation with Indonesia and Timor Leste wants to learn from Indonesia how to achieve self-sufficiency. But underneath all that, there is still a question of sincerity. There are still basic problems which need to be solved first. Timor Leste President Ramos Horta’s groundless allegations that “Indonesian elements” were involved in an assassination attempt on his life on February 11, 2008 have yet to be proved. And he owes Indonesia an apology. Although the prime minister has expressed regret over the issue and called on Indonesia against blowing up the issue for the sake of good relations, the hurt feelings of the Indonesians remain (can’t imagine how top senior journalist Desi Anwar feels). Regret and apology are two different things. Regret is used in invitations while apology is humbly admitting making a mistake and ask for forgiveness. But Horta, as head of state and the leader of Timor Leste arrogantly dismissed claims he had accused Indonesia. It was on the record. And he stood firm he was misquoted by the press (that many times?). The prime minister only conveyed Ramos Horta’s regret (what a double standard!). And alas, Indonesian officialdom was deaf and blind in seeing this reality. It failed to accommodate aspirations and feelings of the people and the press. Timor Leste should respect Indonesia as a big brother. Once again we have been outwitted by both Ramos Horta and Xanana Gusmao. Old wounds have yet to be healed and now Ramos Horta’s manipulative intrigue will continue to be seen as a thorn in relations between Timor Leste and Indonesia.

The spy nest

The Reporter — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 13:54:57 +0000

In 1968, when the sampar plague hit Central Java, Indonesia called on the United States for help. The US then dispatched its Naval Medical Research Unit or NAMRU2, which gave successful recommendations to eradicate the deadly disease. Then in 1970, Indonesia called on the US again for help to fight malaria in Papua. A memorandum of understanding was signed between Indonesian Health Minister GA Siwabessy and US Ambassador Francis Galbraith to secure NAMRU2’s presence in Indonesia. In the 1990s, when malaria was finally eradicated, NAMRU2’s presence continued in Indonesia. In 1991, the US promoted NAMRU2′s level from a mere military health detachment of the US Navy to a full command operations status (intelligence operations?), following the closure of NAMRU2 based in the Philippines in 1994. Since then, with the help of the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) expanded NAMRU2’s function to conduct research on contagious diseases for all of the Southeast Asian region. Then in 1998, Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto urged the government to halt NAMRU2’s operations on grounds that its presence on Indonesian soil posed a threat to national defense and security. Gen. Wiranto noted that 23 NAMRU2 researchers were given diplomatic immunity and free to wander all over Indonesia to carry out their activities (why didn’t he stop it?). In 1999, Foreign Minister Ali Alatas sent a letter to President BJ Habibie informing him that NAMRU2’s operations are related to the military aspect of the Biological Weapons Verification Protocol. Now, after forty years of NAMRU2’s presence, Indonesian believe its function is no longer needed (but Indonesia doesn’t have the guts to tell the US!). Its legal binding with Indonesia has ended. But NAMRU2’s operations continued. AC Manulang a former head of Indonesian intelligence said NAMRU2 is currently carrying out the role of America’s neo-liberalism policy by carrying out espionage activities under the camouflage of research purposes. Current intelligence chief declined to state whether NAMRU2 is associated with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) but confirmed the US military research unit carried out intelligence practices and that it’s presence is being evaluated (why not a recommendation to close the facilities?). US Ambassador to Indonesia Cameron Hume denied such allegations but Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari accused NAMRU2 of trampling over Indonesia’s sovereignty. She ordered all hospitals to stop providing samples, including bird flu samples to NAMRU2 (bird flu research samples made US pharmaceutical firms rich). She said NAMRU2 has its own programs and carry out its activities without informing results of their research to the Indonesian authorities. But it seems that officials, members of parliament and Indonesians in general are powerless against US neo-liberalism interests while all information about Indonesia is already in the hands of a foreign power (when will Indonesia realize and rise?).

A campaign of vilification

The Reporter — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 03:22:48 +0000

When Timor Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta returned to Dili, he accused Indonesian “elements” of alleged involvement in the assassination attempt on his life. And the latest, he alleged a TV station’s journalist in Jakarta, with the help of authorities in West Timor, organized documents for Maj. Alfredo Reinado to travel to Indonesia for a May 23, 2007 interview. Why did Horta make such allegations? He had phoned Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono asking for help. Yudhoyono was surprised as he had ordered top Indonesian authorities to help investigate. He even dispatched two senior police officers to Dili and talk with Timor Leste’s attorney general. On the night of April 17, 2008, the reputed special detachment of the Indonesian police, Densus 88 arrested three members of the Timor Leste military who illegally crossed the border into Indonesia (Indonesian police are more professional). Viewing Horta’s allegations as serious, Yudhoyono called on Horta against issuing statements which could lead to misinterpretations and hurt friendly relations between the two states. The question is, who’s behind all this? Maj. Reinado himself was killed before the assassination attempt on the president took place in Dili on February 11, 2008. Why can’t the 1,100 Australian and New Zealand soldiers and police check the border? Why can’t they secure the president of such a tiny state with only one million people? Why is the refugee issue not addressed? Another attempt to make Indonesia the scapegoat? (as always). In Timor Leste, the common people speak the Indonesian language and in everyday life they rely on Indonesian-made products (the sarongs, the instant noodle) which they have to pay in dollars. At the same time, they resented the luxury lifestyle of the Timor Leste leaders while people lead difficult life. The military meanwhile has been discriminated. The presence of too many Australian soldiers also add to the anti-foreign sentiment. Once again, Australia is launching a campaign of vilification against Indonesia in the Australian and foreign media in favor of Australia’s interests (Horta is Australia’s man in Timor Leste).

Culture of competition

The Reporter — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 12:57:42 +0000

A fresh wind of change is blowing softly across Indonesia’s political spectrum. The recent direct elections for regent and deputy regent in Tangerang and the gubernatorial elections in West Java proved that politics are no longer dominated by the big powerful parties or a handful of incumbents. Rano Karno and Dede Yusuf, both celebrities, stole the limelight from the sunset incumbents when they won the election for deputy regent and deputy governor. Incumbent former governor of West Danny Setiawan (65) and Agum Gumelar (63), a highly respected and well decorated elite forces retired general who were expected to win the votes failed to convince people to vote for them. Sukardi Rinakit, a young political analyst and a fierce but subtle critic of the government launched his book Gusti Ora Sare (in Javanese, God Never Sleeps) which is a collection of his thoughts, analysis and political arguments, dug deep into attitude, character, ethics and morality side in Indonesian politics. He pointed out that the political cycle and activities will face a dead end when it comes to bumping into the attitude of the new voters. People are now digging the potentials they have in their self to create a “culture of competition.” This proved that the old values in the melodramatic character of the Indonesian people are beginning to fade away. They are fed up with the old and same faces of people running for top government jobs and the powerful political parties which to date failed to improve the economic condition and welfare of the people. In this context, God never sleeps. Indonesia is blessed with a powerful economic machine but the problem is that the government is sleeping. The regional elections (pilkada) are overshadowed by political practices of the old regimes called Politik Mataraman (political orientation to the Javanese cosmology). The current pilkada is often dominated by those who have been in politics during the New Order which is artificial and not substancial. The pilkadas which are dominated by incumbents are in fact slowing the real democratic process.

Is there a hidden agenda?

The Reporter — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 14:46:43 +0000

Timor Leste President Ramos Horta would not step down as what the Australian media reported recently. All his life, he had campaigned and struggled for the independence of his country. Although very sensitive, and sometimes emotional, Horta proved himself to be a strong person. Indeed, he was very lucky to have escaped death during an assassination attempt outside his residence in Dili. Following his discharge from hospital, he described the last moments before the shooting took place and the role of the Australian-led UN soldiers stationed in Timor Leste. He saw it was one of Maj. Reinado’s men who shot him. Until now, Maj. Reinado’s men’s whereabouts are still unknown (an Indonesian TV journalist knows where they are). And there is still a lingering question why the Australian soldiers had not acted. Horta was told that United Nations police had obstructed people trying to rescue him as he lay bleeding for 30 minutes near the front gate of his house in Dili on February 11. The Australian-led forces could have promptly surrounded the entire town closing all the exits, using helicopters and captured the attackers within hours. But all that didn’t happen. Meanwhile, defying accusations, Australian Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon said that they would only act at the request of the Timor Leste government or the United Nations (even an assassination attempt on a Nobel laureate?). The question is what are they doing in Timor Leste if they can’t provide security? Is there an Australian hidden agenda in Timor Leste?