Golkar’s Catch-22

Golkar is now in a very difficult position as it has no trusted candidate to nominate as presidential candidate. Vice President Jusuf Kalla, currently Golkar’s chairman is running on the same ticket as vice president with incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who is chairman of the relatively-small Partai Demokrat.

Kalla’s expectation is a coalition between Golkar and Demokrat but that will run against the aspirations of Golkar which is now facing an internal split.

Last October, the Golkar faction at the House of Representatives (DPR) changed its political stance by withdrawing support for the SBY-Kalla government on grounds that government policies disadvantaged Golkar with many of its nominees losing gubernatorial and regency elections such as in North Maluku and Lampung. In many cases, protests and disputes often colored the election process.

Under existing tradition, the chairman of the party should be the frontrunner to be nominated as presidential candidate. Kalla’s only option is for a vice-presidency. That too will fall under severe criticism from Golkar politicians.

Inside Golkar, one of Indonesia’s largest party, political wrangling continues. Diehards are not on the same bandwagon when it comes to presidential elections. Although during its latest leadership conference Golkar seemed to have thrown its weight behind SBY and Kalla, the condition has changed much.

In any way or the other, Golkar is in the doldrums. Golkar’s senior politician Akbar Tandjung has other ideas. The House Speaker Agung Laksono expects the party would ask him to run for the top slot. The younger generation of Golkar politicians also want to nominate a candidate of the younger generation. They have seen enough of the old guards. Yuddhi Chrisnandi, a younger Golkar politician, has challenged Kalla.

Although it seemed unlikely, close sources said Abu Rizal Bakrie, now coordinating minister for people’s welfare and a staunch Golkar politician, is also jockeying fo the top Golkar post which will pave his way for the presidency.

Gorontalo Governor Fadel Muhammad, a leading Golkar politician, had called on Kalla to propose a Golkar national convention urging the party to nominate its candidate for president. Kalla rejected Fadel’s idea and relationship between the two became sour.

Ginanjar Kartasasmita, also an old guard, maintains vast network in the regions as he is now the chairman of the Regional People’s Consultative Assembly (DPD). He is powerful within the political elite but has no grassroot support. He too has other ideas.

But all that is now overshadowed by the emergence of Sultan Hamengku Buwono X who is running as independent presidential candidate. This has made Golkar’s position even more difficult afterall the sultan is still a member of Golkar.

The sultan, who gained vast popularity within a very short period of time, said he will remain in Golkar as he sees there was no urgent interest for him to leave Golkar. Besides, Golkar has yet to name a presidential candidate.

The sultan, which ranks third behind SBY and Megawati in popularity polls, has won increasing support within Golkar. Golkar’s workers wing, SOKSI, regard him as the most popular figure in Golkar and the most potential vote-getter.

But the political elite in Jakarta dismisses and underestimated the sultan’s capability in running for the presidency and to lead on grounds that he is inexperienced and has no political party support.

Political analyst Sukardi Rinakit, a staunch sultan supporter, said it would be easy for the sultan to win support from grassroot level with the majority of the Javanese voters backing him and the fact that the sultan’s acceptability and trust ratings are high.

Sukardi also said that Golkar or any other parties would be less fortunate if they do not opt to back the sultan with his rising popularity and acceptability.

A Golkar politician, Anton Lesiangi, said that Golkar is currently lacking a marketable figure and that the sultan would be the probable option for the top slot and if Golkar wants to win.

Latest surveys show that the sultan can win far more votes than Kalla as presidential hopeful.

On paper, only Golkar and the Megawati Soekarnoputri’s PDI-P qualify to nominate their presidential candidates. The two largest political organizations have the largest number of parliamentary seats.

If Kalla wants a coalition with SBY’s Partai Demokrat, he would probably face no-confidence motion from Golkar. If Golkar wants a coalition with PDI-P, it will be disillusioned into thinking Megawati Soekarnoputri would back the SBY–Kalla ticket.

In a rare interview published in the Van Gorge Report, Kalla has indicated that he would refrain from politics and return to his original habitat as businessman. Aburizal Bakrie, Indonesia’s richest man, has also indicated he would no longer accept a government job following the elections next year.

Golkar has dominated Indonesian politics for more than 30 years and is now trying to chart a new course to compete in a more democratic atmosphere. Although tainted in its history of backing the New Order government of former president Suharto, Golkar has strong network as far as the remote villages. It is now trying to distance itself from the past and become a new and modern party.

But given the current condition of Golkar with all that internal problems, it would make the party even more difficult to advance unless it unites and nominate its presidential candidate.

Culture of competition

A fresh wind of change is blowing softly across Indonesia’s political spectrum. The recent direct elections for regent and deputy regent in Tangerang and the gubernatorial elections in West Java proved that politics are no longer dominated by the big powerful parties or a handful of incumbents. Rano Karno and Dede Yusuf, both celebrities, stole the limelight from the sunset incumbents when they won the election for deputy regent and deputy governor. Incumbent former governor of West Danny Setiawan (65) and Agum Gumelar (63), a highly respected and well decorated elite forces retired general who were expected to win the votes failed to convince people to vote for them. Sukardi Rinakit, a young political analyst and a fierce but subtle critic of the government launched his book Gusti Ora Sare (in Javanese, God Never Sleeps) which is a collection of his thoughts, analysis and political arguments, dug deep into attitude, character, ethics and morality side in Indonesian politics. He pointed out that the political cycle and activities will face a dead end when it comes to bumping into the attitude of the new voters. People are now digging the potentials they have in their self to create a “culture of competition.” This proved that the old values in the melodramatic character of the Indonesian people are beginning to fade away. They are fed up with the old and same faces of people running for top government jobs and the powerful political parties which to date failed to improve the economic condition and welfare of the people. In this context, God never sleeps. Indonesia is blessed with a powerful economic machine but the problem is that the government is sleeping. The regional elections (pilkada) are overshadowed by political practices of the old regimes called Politik Mataraman (political orientation to the Javanese cosmology). The current pilkada is often dominated by those who have been in politics during the New Order which is artificial and not substancial. The pilkadas which are dominated by incumbents are in fact slowing the real democratic process.

Regardless the outcome

Lawmakers have only a few hours left to pass the legislation on parliamentary elections at the grand plenary session slated for February 26, 2008. The heated debates are not over with the larger political parties forcing their will to accommodate their political interests. Eight draft chapters have yet to be agreed upon. While the clock ticks, at stake is a better election than that of 2004 which was based on Law no. 13, 2003 which gave birth to the current assemblies. Deputy chairman of the drafting committee Andi Yuliani Paris expected a miracle to pass the legislation on time as the stages of the elections, including the 2009 elections, will be delayed. Meanwhile, the government is optimistic that the new legislation will be passed soon. Otherwise the old law will be used and voting will take place. The greatest fear will be the issuance of new government decisions (Perppu) to replace some of the draft bill’s missing requirements. The crucial points are among others parliamentary threshold governing a political party’s right to appoint their stalwarts taking seat, the balloting procedure and whether or not a convict can become a people’s representative. Meanwhile, the stipulation on the use of quick count remains unchanged. The hot issue still being debated is how to guarantee that the survey institutions are really independent. But despite the imperfection and weaknesses in the outcome of the legislation, at least Indonesia is learning and quite advanced in what democracy is all about. The question now is whether the 2009 elections will choose a new leader who is strong, consistent and willing to sign a contract with the people to improve their welfare.

Moral and ethics on high ground

Sultan Hamengku Buwono X may be the most popular figure after incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri. But that’s based on existing popularity survey. The LSI (lembaga Survey Indonesia) puts SBY with 34 percent, Megawati with 24 percent and the Sultan with a mere 7 percent. He says if he’s not popular, he’s happy with that. Besides, he has not declared himself a candidate while the draft legislation (RUU) on elections has yet to be passed. Reading his mind is difficult if you are an elitist or a person educated and trained abroad. He will not be accepted and regarded as feudal or absurdly outdated and out-fashioned. But to the Javanese, he’s a born leader, a king and born to serve. And the Javanese make up the majority of the population. Unlike others, he puts moral and ethics on high ground. He can’t and doesn’t want to run at the moment. Besides he doesn’t have the political vehicle. He’s only a governor under SBY. It would be unethical to run against his boss. On paper, SBY and Megawati are on top. But the two haven’t proved themselves as good leaders. The sultan is now building dialogues with all walks of the Indonesian society and tells people that a leadership will not be successful without a cultural strategy putting moral and ethics as the supreme commander of development instead of Western-style economics. Moral and ethics decadence have caused a great difficulty for the nation difficult to rise from the crisis, poverty and backwardness. But Your Majesty, are you going to give it a try in 2009?

Political wrangling hurts Indonesia’s image

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 saw the anti-corruption commission KPK questioning central bank (BI) Governor Burhannudin Abdullah over allegations he was involved in misappropriating Rp 100 billion in bank funds to bribe members of the House of Representatives (DPR) in 2004 and to pay lawyers’ fee to defend central bank officials implicated in the 1998 liquidity funds scandal (BLBI). The Central Bank Governor meanwhile denied the accusations. During the opening of the Syariah Festival in Jakarta a while ago, Burhanuddin and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took center stage in promoting Syariah banking in Indonesia. Both seemed to get along well and the president praised Burhanuddin for the work he has done and asked him to continue with his program. Most were convinced that Burhanuddin would assume a second term. But then, in just a few months after the two met, the BI Governor was implicated in the scandal. Most people believe the case was politically motivated, given that it emerged just in time before the DPR is set to appoint a new central bank governor. The president proposed two names, Agus Martowardoyo and Raden Pardede as candidates for new BI Governor. But the two candidates were immediately rejected by opposition factions at DPR. Effendi Choirie of Gus Dur’s PKB faction suspected that Agus Martowardoyo had been a Titiek Soeharto (daughter of former president Soeharto) confidante while a member of House Commission XI admitted he had been offered Rp 500 million in bribes to iron the way for the candidates to pass fit and proper test. If true, such political wrangling between the executive and the legislative branches would only open new opportunities for corruption and sink the image of Indonesia deeper into the abyss.