Golkar’s Catch-22

Golkar is now in a very difficult position as it has no trusted candidate to nominate as presidential candidate. Vice President Jusuf Kalla, currently Golkar’s chairman is running on the same ticket as vice president with incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who is chairman of the relatively-small Partai Demokrat.

Kalla’s expectation is a coalition between Golkar and Demokrat but that will run against the aspirations of Golkar which is now facing an internal split.

Last October, the Golkar faction at the House of Representatives (DPR) changed its political stance by withdrawing support for the SBY-Kalla government on grounds that government policies disadvantaged Golkar with many of its nominees losing gubernatorial and regency elections such as in North Maluku and Lampung. In many cases, protests and disputes often colored the election process.

Under existing tradition, the chairman of the party should be the frontrunner to be nominated as presidential candidate. Kalla’s only option is for a vice-presidency. That too will fall under severe criticism from Golkar politicians.

Inside Golkar, one of Indonesia’s largest party, political wrangling continues. Diehards are not on the same bandwagon when it comes to presidential elections. Although during its latest leadership conference Golkar seemed to have thrown its weight behind SBY and Kalla, the condition has changed much.

In any way or the other, Golkar is in the doldrums. Golkar’s senior politician Akbar Tandjung has other ideas. The House Speaker Agung Laksono expects the party would ask him to run for the top slot. The younger generation of Golkar politicians also want to nominate a candidate of the younger generation. They have seen enough of the old guards. Yuddhi Chrisnandi, a younger Golkar politician, has challenged Kalla.

Although it seemed unlikely, close sources said Abu Rizal Bakrie, now coordinating minister for people’s welfare and a staunch Golkar politician, is also jockeying fo the top Golkar post which will pave his way for the presidency.

Gorontalo Governor Fadel Muhammad, a leading Golkar politician, had called on Kalla to propose a Golkar national convention urging the party to nominate its candidate for president. Kalla rejected Fadel’s idea and relationship between the two became sour.

Ginanjar Kartasasmita, also an old guard, maintains vast network in the regions as he is now the chairman of the Regional People’s Consultative Assembly (DPD). He is powerful within the political elite but has no grassroot support. He too has other ideas.

But all that is now overshadowed by the emergence of Sultan Hamengku Buwono X who is running as independent presidential candidate. This has made Golkar’s position even more difficult afterall the sultan is still a member of Golkar.

The sultan, who gained vast popularity within a very short period of time, said he will remain in Golkar as he sees there was no urgent interest for him to leave Golkar. Besides, Golkar has yet to name a presidential candidate.

The sultan, which ranks third behind SBY and Megawati in popularity polls, has won increasing support within Golkar. Golkar’s workers wing, SOKSI, regard him as the most popular figure in Golkar and the most potential vote-getter.

But the political elite in Jakarta dismisses and underestimated the sultan’s capability in running for the presidency and to lead on grounds that he is inexperienced and has no political party support.

Political analyst Sukardi Rinakit, a staunch sultan supporter, said it would be easy for the sultan to win support from grassroot level with the majority of the Javanese voters backing him and the fact that the sultan’s acceptability and trust ratings are high.

Sukardi also said that Golkar or any other parties would be less fortunate if they do not opt to back the sultan with his rising popularity and acceptability.

A Golkar politician, Anton Lesiangi, said that Golkar is currently lacking a marketable figure and that the sultan would be the probable option for the top slot and if Golkar wants to win.

Latest surveys show that the sultan can win far more votes than Kalla as presidential hopeful.

On paper, only Golkar and the Megawati Soekarnoputri’s PDI-P qualify to nominate their presidential candidates. The two largest political organizations have the largest number of parliamentary seats.

If Kalla wants a coalition with SBY’s Partai Demokrat, he would probably face no-confidence motion from Golkar. If Golkar wants a coalition with PDI-P, it will be disillusioned into thinking Megawati Soekarnoputri would back the SBY–Kalla ticket.

In a rare interview published in the Van Gorge Report, Kalla has indicated that he would refrain from politics and return to his original habitat as businessman. Aburizal Bakrie, Indonesia’s richest man, has also indicated he would no longer accept a government job following the elections next year.

Golkar has dominated Indonesian politics for more than 30 years and is now trying to chart a new course to compete in a more democratic atmosphere. Although tainted in its history of backing the New Order government of former president Suharto, Golkar has strong network as far as the remote villages. It is now trying to distance itself from the past and become a new and modern party.

But given the current condition of Golkar with all that internal problems, it would make the party even more difficult to advance unless it unites and nominate its presidential candidate.