Digging into the statistics

The Biro Pusat Statistik (national statistic bureau) may not be as bad as many people think. The final analysis of an economic issue would depend on how good a person digs into the statistics. Former central bank director Cyrilus Harinowo was probably the only one of the few willing to do so and come out with an interesting finding. Crude palm oil exports in 2007 reached US$ 10.2 billion which surpassed crude oil exports worth US$ 9.2 billion. CPO exports also exceeded export of liquiefied natural gas (LNG). Harinowo, who competed in the race for Central Bank Governor in 2003, predicts that many more businessmen will be in the oil palm business while current data showed he number of plantations has increased significantly. He sees CPO exports will top 20 million tons this year. With CPO fetching US$ 1000 per ton at current rate, it is a great possibility that CPO exports will surpass oil and gas exports in 2008 as well. The former BI director sees further economic growth in the regions outside Java driven by rising commodity prices. Such condition will eventually promote wealth in the regions, encourage more local businessmen and boost welfare of the farmers. The new economic hubs will Palembang, Djambi and Pekanbaru in Sumatra, and Pontianak, Sampit and Pangkalan Bun in Kalimantan. Harinowo, who is good with figures, also attributed increasing growth to the policy of pemekaran wilayah (splitting of the big provinces into smaller regions) in line with the aspirations of the people seeking greater autonomy. But he suggested that a people-based economic policy will be more effective in stimulating growth in the regions. Growth in the provinces will in turn boost national economic growth to a higher level, and perhaps even higher than what the government had anticipated. Harinowo’s finding has signaled a new optimism but it’s a pity that he is no longer with the government.